April 10th, 2008 by Ben The Professor · No Comments
Ok, with 4 games remaining the Timberwolves are currently slotted in the 3rd best position in the draft lottery, which would give them a 15.6% chance of landing the #1 overall pick. However, at 19-59 the Timberwolves are only one game in the win column ahead of the Seattle Supersonics (18-61). This means that to catch Seattle the Supersonics will have to win one more game than the Timberwolves the rest of the way. Complicating matters is that Seattle has three games left and the Timberwolves have four.
On first blush it would appear that we have no chance in this equation. Seattle’s three remaining games are against solid Western Conference opponents (San Antonio, Dallas and Golden State). However, here is the scenario by which we could catch Seattle. The Timberwolves have 4 remaining games, the next 3 of them on the road. I predict that we will lose out. We play Orlando, Memphis and Detroit on the road in the next week or so, and will lose all three. The only close game will be at Memphis, but Rudy Gay will prove to be too much on the road. Then we come home for the final game against Milwaukee, which we will use to give backups extended minutes to try to determine who should remain on the roster for next year (Richard, Smith, Telfair, Snyder, etc.).
If we finish the year 19-63 we have a shot. The reason being that Seattle will win one of its remaining games, and here’s why: First they play San Antonio. There’s a chance that Duncan and company could be resting their players. They have no shot at catching New Orleans for the number one spot in the West and might not have a huge preference whether they play Dallas or Phoenix. Seattle’s second game is against Dallas. This is more of a long shot, but it’s possible that Dallas might not want to win out, because securing the 7th spot means that they will have to play SA or LA. If you’re SA, why not lose a couple, grab the 8th spot and play New Orleans in the first round? Which brings us to the game that I think Seattle has the greatest chance to win: Golden State. Right now GS is in the 9th spot, on the outside looking in. By the last game of the season they will likely be officially eliminated, deflated, and looking to next year. On the other hand, Seattle has a lot of young talent who will be looking to make a statement for playing time to the coaches going into the offseason. If, and it’s a big if, Seattle can pull out one of these three games for the reasons I have stated, and if the Timberwolves do the prudent thing and lose out, the Timberwolves will have a chance at a coin flip to see who gets the second slot and a 19.9% chance at grabbing Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose with the number one pick on May 20th. Here’s hoping that the Supersonics will finish their run in Seattle on a strong note - maybe even win a couple more games..
Rose or Beasley, who do you want when it all unfolds?
April 7th, 2008 by Keith HootsMcGavin · No Comments
After clinching the Northwest division with 98 points the MN Wild will open the 2008 playoffs as the #3 seed. The Wild will face off against a familiar rival the #5 seeded Colorado Avalanche.
After breaking down the the other 3 Western Conf. matchups I will make this prediction - The Wild will play in the Conference Finals. Here’s how:
The playoffs are re-seeded after each round. If everything follows the chalk then the Wild would face the #2 seed San Jose Sharks. But the Sharks are the playing a feisty Calgary team that went 3-1 this year against the Sharks. I’m not saying this will hold up in the playoffs but it does show the Sharks have struggled with the Flames. The real reason I think the Flames with upset the Sharks is the schedule. The NHL has scheduled the opening two games to be played Wed & Thurs. back to back. I believe this will only help with the momentum one of the team creates in game one as they will play again without a practice or much time for adjustments. The Flames have been very inconsistent this year but San Jose has a history of blowing up in the playoffs. If the Flames get something going they could win the series.
If the Flames pull the upset the Wild would then face the #4 or #5 seed Anaheim or Dallas. The Wild have a winning record against both. The Flames would play the Red Wings. If the Wild win again they will play the Red Wings in the Western Conference Finals. I only see this playing out if the Flames can somehow upset the #2 seeded Sharks. If they do, the Wild should be playing in Detroit later this year.
Then again if a goalie gets hot and starts standing on his head anything can happen. My 2008 Playoff Prediction - Wild vs. Wings in the West, Canadiens vs. Caps in the East. The Red Wings end up having too much and beat the Capitals in six.
came across the following nugget: the top-level domains www.landolakespark.com and www.landolakesfield.com have been purchased by the Minnesota Twins. According to my WHOIS searches (see graphics below), club itself is the Registrant and the technical contact given for the domain is John Avenson, the Twins’ Vice President of Technology.
March 31st, 2008 by Keith HootsMcGavin · No Comments
It’s way too early to be making predictions based on the season opener but if Gomez continues to hit in front of Mauer and gets on base…I could see Mauer adding 20 points to his batting average or drawing more walks this season. With opposing pitchers worrying about the steal, the SS covering the steal and 1B holding on the runner Mauer should see better pitches, bigger gaps or a lot more walks.
If Gomez does steal and Mauer moves him over to 3rd with that patented miss hit dribble to 2nd then Cuddyer or Morneau could be adding another 20 RBI this year. Please Gomez, be the second coming of Kenny Lofton 1992-1998.
March 28th, 2008 by Ben The Professor · 2 Comments
Here is an incredibly accurate and poignant editorial on exactly what is going wrong with our favorite pro basketball team. It’s written by a college student in Boston, of all sources. Thanks for the insight, Ross!
This year the Minnesota Vikings will have the 17th overall selection in the NFL Draft. Midway through last season it looked like we were a lock to land a top 5 pick. Then Adrian Peterson realized that he was one of the 3 most explosive, game-changing players in the league and all hell broke loose. The worst case scenario in the NFL is to narrowly miss the playoffs; in this scenario you not only miss out on the postseason, you also get a lousy draft pick. Unlike sports like hockey and baseball, it definitely pays to tank in the NFL; there’s not even a lottery.. Although the Vikings did pay bigtime for their winning ways the last half of the season in the way of draft order, the way they will not pay is by having to invest in upwards of $30 million guaranteed dollars in what likely will amount to a bust player from college.
With the 2008 NFL Draft closely at hand (relatively speaking), I for one am glad that our Vikings don’t have the responsibility of picking in the top 10 and paying top 10 money to a player who has never stepped foot on a pro field. This year the Dolphins have been ‘rewarded’ for having the most pathetic record in the league by being given the opportunity to invest $30 million guaranteed on basically a coin flip. I will highlight my point by taking you back to the 2005 NFL Draft. I’m choosing 2005 for a couple reasons. The first is because the players in that draft have had 3 years to prove their worth. The other reason is that it was a really bad first round for those selecting in the top 17 picks. If the 2008 draft turns out anything like the 2005 draft, we should thank our lucky stars to have had our draft status drop like a football clanked off Troy Williamson’s facemask. Here is what the top 17 picks looked like in 2005:
Draft#:1
Alex D. Smith
Position:QB
Drafted From: Utah
CAN BARELY COMPLETE A PASS
Draft#:2
Ronnie Brown
Position:RB
Drafted From: Auburn
SHOWS SIGNS OF DOMINANCE BUT CAN’T STAY HEALTHY, 3 YEARS LATER THE DOLPHINS HAVEN’T IMPROVED
PRO BOWL DEFENSIVE TEAM LEADER (ALTHOUGH HE HASN’T BEEN AS GOOD SINCE HIS STEROID SUSPENSION)
Draft#:13
Jammal Brown
Position:OT
Drafted From: Oklahoma
ALL PRO ON THE FIELD AND AT DOMESTIC DISTURBANCES
Draft#:14
Thomas Davis
Position:FS
Drafted From: Georgia
CONVERTED TO OUTSIDE LINEBACKER, SECOND ON TEAM IN TACKLES UNTIL SHOULDER INJURY IN GAME 15
Draft#:15
Derrick O. Johnson
Position:OLB
Drafted From: Texas
GOOD STARTING OUTSIDE LINEBACKER, VERY ATHLETIC, NOT GREAT VS. THE RUN
Draft#:16
Travis Johnson
Position:DT
Drafted From: Florida State
ENDED TRENT GREEN’S CAREER LAST YEAR, KEITH OLBERMANN CALLED HIM ‘THE WORST PERSON IN THE NFL’
Draft#:17
David Pollack
Position:DE
Drafted From: Georgia
BROKE HIS NECK AND LIKELY WILL NEVER PLAY AGAIN
Making the beginning of this draft even worse is the fact that with the 18th pick we took Erasmus James, who has absolutely lived up to the hype that he is extremely injury prone. The point of all this is that it’s not necessarily the best to be at the top of the draft. Call it sour grapes if you want, but the 49ers rue the day that they had to give Alex Smith $27 million guaranteed dollars, half of it up front! Bottom line is I’d only want to have 5 of the players on this list on my team, period. AND, I would only want Edwards, Merriman and Brown for how much they getting paid for their efforts. So, from a value perspective I would want 17% of the top 18 picks. Vegas cleans up and patrons have close to a 48% of leaving happy; if I were an NFL GM I would try to trade all my draft picks for players from whom I was 100% sure what I was getting, even if it meant giving up some upside. It might be a better strategy long-term, but nobody has had the seeds to try it. It works in Madden…
March 25th, 2008 by Ben The Professor · No Comments
Ok, with Denard Span being sent down to AAA and Joe Nathan being inked to a 4 year, $47 M payday, the Minnesota Twins opening day roster is rounding into shape. Here are my predictions for the upcoming season. The opening day lineup will look like this:
1. Carlos Gomez, CF
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Craig Monroe/Jason Kubel, DH
7. Brendan Harris, 2B
8. Mike Lamb, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS
The best case scenario is that Carlos Gomez becomes Jose Reyes, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau play like they did in 2006, Delmon Young plays like Torii Hunter did last year, and the 7,8,9 spots can get at least 3 combined hits a game. Worst case scenario is that Carlos Gomez bats .232 like he last year with the Mets, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau play like they did in 2007, Delmon Young is still a couple years away from being a superstar, Craig Monroe remembers that he is old and Jason Kubel continues to deliver nothing on the hype that I have heard for the last 4 years, and our 7,8,9 batters consistently give the Twins only 18 outs to outscore our opponents who are getting 27 outs to play with.
How about the pitchers. It looks like the Franchise is going to start the year on a rehab assignment, and Baker will be given as much time to get up to speed as possible; so here is how I see the opening day rotation:
1. Livan Hernandez
2. Boof Bonser
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Scott Baker
Eventually, however, the rotation will look more like:
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Scott Baker
3. Livan Hernandez
4. Boof Bonser
5. Kevin Slowey
Either way, the prospects for keeping opponents under 5 runs a game don’t look good. Blackburn and Slowey are essentially unknowns at this point. They are both regarded by those outside of the Twins organization as decent pitching prospects. To put it into perspective, the Rays didn’t want Slowey or Blackburn for Delmon Young, they wanted Matt Garza. So expecting either of them to be better than Matt was would be irresponsible. Boof and Baker both showed signs of dominant pitching last year, but those signs were all too often scattered in between 4 inning outings. The same goes for Liriano. He made the all-star game in 2006 after arriving on the baseball landscape like he was shot out of cannon. Unfortunately, it’s almost impossible to know how his elbow will respond to the Tommy John surgery, not to mention the complete transformation of his delivery mechanics. To me, it looks like the smart bet would be that Liriano will get back to peak form by the end of spring training next year.
As you can probably tell, I see the rotation as the biggest question mark. One which could sway the Twins performance this year by 40 games or more from best-case scenario to worst-case scenaro. If the starting rotation is a high yield junk bond, rife with risk, the bullpen is more like an index fund; solid performance with less risk exposure. Joe Nathan is a top 5 closer in the league, Neshek was a top 5 set-up man before he had to take all of his innings and Jesse Crain’s innings the second half of the year. Speaking of Crain, he is coming back healthy and will be able to spell Neshek and keep him fresh throughout the season. Blackburn/Perkins/whoever else will be decent long-relievers for those times when the starters show their inevitable inconsistency.
So, here comes a prediction. The way I see it, we will be good enough to win 25% percent of our games against Detroit, Cleveland, New York Yankees and Boston. So that gives us 10 wins in 38 tries against the Detroit/Cleveland and 3 wins in 12 tries against NY/Boston. I think we are good enough to play .600 baseball the rest of the way in the 112 remaining games against the NL teams in interleague play and the non-elite AL teams. So this would give us 67 more wins in 112 tries. Therefore, my prediction for the overall season is 80 wins, 82 losses. Unfortunately, 80 wins in the AL Central is probably only good for 3rd, depending on if the White Sox can come back to form and pass us. This is by no means gospel, so if you have any thoughts/opinions/arguments/gripes we would love hear what you think!
March 19th, 2008 by Keith HootsMcGavin · 2 Comments
Potentially one of the best articles written on Kevin Garnett and why Glen Taylor continues to fail him.
From Yahoo sports writer Johnny Ludden-
HOUSTON – Kevin Garnett leaned over the scorer’s table, clapped his hands together and out burst that familiar cloud of chalk. As the dust settled into the air, Garnett turned to walk onto the court. The fierceness in his eyes told everyone all they needed to know.
The streak was done.
Garnett makes the same entrance every night, and Tuesday was no different. He pounded his heart three times with his right fist then pounded the Houston Rockets. His Boston Celtics would leave with a 94-74 victory, again solidifying their standing as this season’s most dominant team, and when Garnett was asked whether it felt special to hand the Rockets their first loss after 22 games and 49 days, he had this to say:
“No.”
Garnett doesn’t need to use the NBA’s second-longest win streak as fuel. He carries the same slow-burning fire to the court nearly every game. Nor does he need the words of his former employer as motivation.
Garnett “tanked?”
Garnett’s problem is that he doesn’t have an off button, and Minnesota Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor should know that better than most. For years, the Timberwolves tried to cut back Garnett’s playing time only to watch him punch in for another 39-minute night. During a six-season stretch he missed only three games.
Yet on Tuesday Taylor told reporters in Minnesota that Garnett “tanked it” when he sat out last season’s final five games to go to California to get his sore right knee checked. Team officials publicly supported Garnett’s decision at the time it was announced.
After Tuesday’s game, Garnett called Taylor’s comments “nonsense” in an on-court interview with TNT. Speaking to reporters 40 minutes later in the locker room, he again declined to criticize Taylor, instead thanking him for the opportunity to “fulfill my dream.”
“Glen Taylor was good to me while I was a Timberwolf and I’m a Boston Celtic now,” Garnett said. “I’m not going to be going back and forth saying tasteless things. That’s not my character. I’ll let him speak if he wants to.
“I have nothing to do with the Minnesota Timberwolves. That’s in my past. I’m in a new chapter in my life.”
Garnett hopes to author a happier ending to this one. Since Minnesota traded him to Boston, Garnett has teamed with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to lead the Celtics to a league-best 54-13 record. With Allen sidelined by a heel injury, Boston rallied from 22 points down to beat the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. One night later, Allen again watched as the Celtics held the Rockets to 34 points on 33.3 percent shooting in the second half.
“I’ve never seen defense like that,” Rockets guard Tracy McGrady said after being limited to eight points. “I mean if they play defense like that, night in and night out, the NBA is in trouble.”
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich dispensed similar praise. Assistant coach Tom Thibodeau has substantially upgraded the Celtics’ defense, but Garnett makes the system works. On Tuesday, he was everywhere, as usual, trading elbows inside with Rockets forward Luis Scola then jumping out to the perimeter to hound Houston’s guards.
“He led the charge,” Pierce said.
Rajon Rondo, Boston’s second-year point guard, initially set the tone. When Rafer Alston tried to clear him out with an elbow on the opening tip, Rondo pushed back then clenched his fists.
“When Rondo spread off I could see it in their faces,” Garnett said. “From that point on, right then and there, I knew they didn’t really want pressure.”
With the first-place teams from each conference squaring off in front of a national TV audience, as well as the largest Toyota Center crowd ever, the tension was thick. On the final play of the first half, Scola elbowed Garnett in the head while trying to heave the ball down court. Scola later received a flagrant foul for cracking Celtics guard Tony Allen to the floor.
“I didn’t think we handled that too well, honestly,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “I thought that’s what sped us up. I thought Rondo wanted to attack Rafer and I told them at halftime, ‘It’s the scoreboard guys. It’s not individual. We just have to let all that other stuff go.’ ”
Garnett has always had trouble letting anything go. His competitiveness can work against him, something the Spurs realized when he sometimes burned out in his heated battles with Tim Duncan. Rivers still talks to Garnett about realizing when to reign in his emotions.
But Garnett simply isn’t built that way. During All-Star Weekend he attended the Rookie-Sophomore Game to support Rondo, but looked more irritated than entertained while sitting in his courtside chair. In what was little more than a free-flowing dunk contest, Garnett chewed on Rondo for not getting back quick enough on defense.
When the Celtics reported to Boston 30 days before the start of training camp for informal workouts, the team needed all of one hour, Rivers said, to realize the depth of Garnett’s intensity.
“After the workouts, he stayed on the court for another hour and a half working, then he went and lifted, then he came back that night,” Rivers said. “You see that before the season and if you’re anybody else then you almost have to (do the same). How can you not?”
That’s what made Taylor’s comments so ridiculous. Garnett was so frustratingly loyal to the Timberwolves that even when the team failed time and again to put an adequate supporting cast around him, he refused to demand a trade. His only goal was to bring an NBA championship to Minnesota, to become a dunking Kirby Puckett.
“Ask anyone in this organization if Kevin tanks anything,” said Celtics guard Sam Cassell, who played with Garnett in Minnesota. “Games? Practices? I wish he did tank a couple of practices.”
Cassell called Taylor’s comments a “personal” shot at Garnett, and he’s right. For if there’s anyone who submarined the Timberwolves, it was Taylor himself. He cost Minnesota three first-round draft picks for signing Joe Smith to an illegal contract. Taylor also has continued to employ GM Kevin McHale even though only once did he put together a team Garnett was capable of lifting out of the first round.
Does Garnett deserve some of the blame for Minnesota’s struggles during his 12 seasons there? Absolutely. But he didn’t quit on the Timberwolves as much as they quit on him. Garnett even balked at a previous trade to Boston last summer. Not until the Celtics acquired Ray Allen did he think they afforded him the best opportunity to win a championship.
So far, it looks like he was right. The Celtics have handled nearly every challenge thrown their way this season. As for concerns that Boston’s two blockbuster trades robbed the roster of depth: On Tuesday, Rivers plucked Leon Powe off his bench and watched him score 21 points.
“It’s satisfying to know that I have a team that’s committed toward winning, not just talking about it,” Garnett said. “That doesn’t mean we agree upon everything that’s said. We have big debates and they are heated, at times. …But when we play other teams we usually take it out on them.”
That was the case Tuesday. The Celtics fed Garnett often in the second half and he tormented the Rockets with his size and quickness, totaling 22 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, three steals and a pair of blocks for the game.
With two minutes left and the outcome no longer in doubt, the lane opened for Garnett. He bounced off the court, hung in the air for what seemed like three full seconds then punched in a vicious dunk, also flushing the Rockets’ winning streak.
The crowd gasped. Garnett clenched his fists and growled. His eyes blazed just as bright as they had some 2½ hours earlier.
