Jan/100
David Kahn talks about his 17-month plan for the T-Wolves
Wolves GM David Kahn talked with ESPN's Ryen Russillo this past friday. Kahn talks about his past experience and his master plan for the struggling Wolves. Have a listen to the audio to hear his 17 month plan. The goal: copy the success of Portland and OK City and build a solid roster of maturing players. Look for big moves this summer.
The Audio - ESPN RADIO
Too bad we already traded away one of NBA's top 20 players...
Dec/090
Corey Brewer + Derek Fisher = Poster
Corey Brewer recently decided he needed to produce a new set of three posters. His victim...Derek Fisher.
NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using these three Photographs, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2009 NBAE (Photo by Evan Gole/NBAE via Getty Images)
Dec/090
T-Wolves Trending the Wrong Way
With the firing of McHale and a change of the guard at GM, Wolves fans finally had something to cheer about this past off-season. A new coach more famous for his eye wear than his coaching prowess and a new young team featuring a lightning quick point guard. To say there are growing pains would be an understatement, so far the 2009-2010 Wolves could be on their way to the worst season in NBA history.
The more disturbing fact to Wolves fans has been the steady decline of the franchise. CBS sports reports Wolves ticket revenue is off 24% this year, the second worst year-to-year decline in the NBA. The bigger story is that the Wolves are a below $500K club. There are only 8 NBA teams who average below $500K in gate receipts per game. There are 7 NBA teams (12 last year) who are averaging above $1M gate receipts per game this year.
These figures are important as it relates to free agents and building for the future. The Wolves, before the season even begins are $10M - $20M behind in revenue right from the start. If free agents are available to fill the Wolves needs, the Wolves simply can't afford them. Teams like the Nuggets and Blazers, both Northwest Division foes, can add depth, scoring and defense to their rosters, simply because they have the revenue to do so.
So what's it all mean? The only real way to re-build the Wolves is through the draft. That's the good news, the Wolves are loaded with picks and retain assets they can easily trade to gain more picks. The bad news, the Wolves are trending the wrong way. Each year the team loses more and more games and offers little hope a turn around is in sight.
The wins, they are not improving...
To be fair the new regime should be given at least a year to show some sort of progress, lets watch, wait and hope next year we won't be saying the same thing.
"With the first pick of the 2010 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select.....John Wall, Guard, Kentucky"
- John Wall Kentucky Guard
Jun/095
Rubio Pick Now Becoming More Clear
When the Timberwolves drafted 4 PG's in the 2009 NBA Draft they had basketball fans worldwide scratching their heads. One day later the moves are starting to make a little more sense.
In today's economy it is no secret the most valuable players in NBA are one's with expiring or low contracts. Twelve teams have received loans from the NBA front office. Watching the NBA draft you'd think every team was trying to sell their pick for dead beat expiring players or cash (two did, LA and WAS).
It is this environment that MN found itself with 4 picks in the first round of what many experts were calling the worst draft class since Kenyon Martin's #1 overall 2000 draft. Direct from wikipedia:
Sports Illustrated named this entire draft class (as opposed to individual players) the 6th biggest "draft bust" of the modern era - making it the only draft class among the site's top 20 list. Just before the 2009 draft, ESPN.com columnist David Schoenfield wrote a piece in which he rated all of the drafts since the institution of the draft lottery in 1985, and the only draft which he gave a grade of 'F" was the 2000 draft. Side note: It's ironically funny because the draft was held in MN and every draft since then has been held in NY.
The Wolves then potentially have 4 picks in what many people think may be a top 5 worst draft class since 1985. What to do? Would it make sense to develop a 2 or 3 year plan? Try fixing the one glaring PG need and horde picks and players in the future? Would there be a way to take this years 4 and instead turn it into 3 picks in next years draft? A draft with more talent?
It's no secret Glen Taylor is a business man first. There is no reason to invest tens of millions into players that won't create wins in a tough Western Conference. The only logical thing to do is build for 2 or 3 years out.
With that said Ricky Rubio wasn't or will never be in MN's 2 or 3 years out plan. Here's what hoopshype.com looked like on Friday, June 26th.
When you consider Rubio doesn't want to play for MN and it would cost an est. $5-$6M to buy him out of his Euro contract MN was never going to be the place Rubio played.
The Wolves new GM is David Kahn. Kahn spent the better part of a decade in the Indian Pacers front office. His boss - the new New York Knicks GM Donnie Walsh. ie. the perfect trade partner. Rubio has said he wants to play in NY. NY is the only team that can really afford to throw millions at Rubio to buy him out and sign him to a long term deal.
Ricky Rubio's agent is Dan Fegan. Fegan got Chinese YI Jianlian out of Milwaukee and into New Jersey a larger market where he preferred to be. The Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni was just on ESPN radio praising how he loves coaching Euro players so much he traded for one of the NBA's biggest draft pick flops - Darko Milicic.
Rubio holds all the cards, he can play one or two more years in Spain if he likes. But the Wolves made the smartest move when they took him anyway. They now own the rights to a player many NBA teams will covet. The Wolves own the bait and will get much more for him in return (ie. expiring contracts, draft picks, maybe even a sleeper).
If you do believe the Wolves are 2 or 3 years away then trading Rubio for a small forward, saving a bunch of money, maybe getting a draft pick or two makes the most sense. Trading away Lawson to Denver for a future draft pick also makes sense.
The Wolves know they have to run the team like a business and there is no way they can compete in the West this year with what they currently have with Rubio or not. By making the right moves to clear salary, horde future picks and maybe pick up a solid speedy PG with a 40" inch vertical...the Wolves are erasing a dozen years of draft day blunders under former GM, God Bless his Soul, Kevin McHale.
Here's a snapshot of the salary situation before this years draft. I like the idea of creating enough space now to go grab 1 or even 2 max deal elite players in free agency in 2011 and 2012. That is if we can convince someone to handle the cold. The Wolves are setting themselves up to go shopping in 2011 and 2012.
It's all part of the 2 or 3 year plan. Too bad there isn't a Roy and/or Mayo around, instead of talking rebuilding we'd be talking about what one piece we could add to make a deep playoff run.
Jul/086
Why Mayo Is Right and Love Is Wrong
The professor gives too much credit to Kevin McHale and his ability to find talent in a draft. The fact that McHale likes Love should be reason enough to question the draft pick as McHale has never drafted an All-Star (except Garnett a HS project that happened to work out 13 yrs ago and some All-Stars he traded away on draft day).
The problem with drafting Love is that you don't get any upside. What you get is a predictable 6' 10" guy who won't change defenses. NBA history has shown little success for heavier set power forward types over the years. The power forward position has turned into small forwards converted for mismatches or centers converted for mismatches. You have Duncan, Garnett, Dirk, Bosh, Boozer, Jermaine O'Neal, Gasol and Jamison. Everyone of these players is more athletic than Love.
When Love was graded for the draft in 12 categories he scored well except in quickness and defense. I think this scouting report says it best:
Weaknesses: At 6-9, he is undersized and he also lacks great athleticism to offset this size deficiency ... Was not in the greatest shape this season, often being the last man up the court and getting winded very quickly ... Needs to work on fitness, could stand to lose some weight and put on more muscle ... Weight and speed could always be an issue, as even when "in shape" he lacks great speed in the floor or laterally ... Was able to get away with overpowering opponents in college, yet questions remain how his game translates against bigger, quicker and more athletic opponents at the next level ... At times this season he struggled getting his shot off against taller defenders, more specifically the Lopez twins of Stanford, who forced him into off-balance shots and uncharacteristic turnovers ... His one-on-one arsenal in the post is a bit predictable, as he almost always operates on the right block and prefers to turn to his left shoulder often finishing with a right hook ... He gets into trouble when trying to do too much off the dribble because quicker defenders are able to slide over and force him into turning the ball over ... Defensively he will have trouble matching up as he is undersized and because he has less than ideal lateral quickness ... His lack of speed will make it extremely difficult for him to play for a running style of team ...
Well the good news is the Timberwolves aren't a running team. The one thing that comes up again and again is quickness. That's one of the only things that matters in the NBA, at 6-10 he will have no height advantage like he had in college.
In college over his Pac10 season he shot more and more 3's. Boozer shot 1 in three years of college. If you take away Love's 3 pointers he average about 15 a game. I see Jamison and Dirk as shooters because of their quickness or height, I don't see Love doing much of that in the NBA.
I'm not saying he can't be a solid 10 points, 8 rb's a game kind of guy, but that's exactly what you are going to get. We now have 2 power forwards on our team with the exact same game. I just don't see how a Love will get you 10-20 more wins each year.
I'm not declaring Mayo will be the next great shooting guard or small forward, I'm just saying there is a better chance that someone in that position can make a bigger impact on a team vs. a Love type player. You look at the 2008 NBA All-Stars and you see Wade, Kidd, Allen, Billups, Hamilton, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bryant, Roy, Chris Paul and you think Mayo could be one of of those players. In the NBA it's easier for him to produce those type results with his style game than it is for a Kevin Love to join Duncan and Garnett.
This is one case where I do think taking a very slight risk on a Mayo could potentially get you 10-20 more games a year. Taking a Love no matter how great he becomes won't accomplish that type difference. The NBA is not a place for 3 pt shooting power forward white guys.
If nothing else you seriously have to question the man running each draft and wonder why he really likes a guy, for 13 years that has been a horrible sign.
Jul/081
Ode to the Newest ‘Pup
Ok, 'California' Kevin Love isn't flashy like OJ Mayo, but he absolutely has the potential to be a Carlos Boozer-type power forward next to Big Al, and Mike Miller might be our highest scoring player for the next 5 years. Meanwhile, Mayo absolutely has the potential to be the next Larry Hughes or Ricky 'Avis..
Jun/080
Celtics take game one thanks to an out-of-this-world performance off the bench by Sammy C.
And who could forget..
Jun/0816
Kobe is not MJ
Let's stop all of these comparisons. It is not doing anyone any good and those who dare to make the leap (yes I said leap) to put Kobe at Jordan's level is nothing short of asinine.
I'm not trying to make the case that Kobe isn't a great player. He is a great and very dominent player in the NBA. He is not however Jordan.
Check out some of the career stats for both Kobe and Jordan
Kobe Career
Points/Game - 28.3
FG% - .453
Minutes - 36.5
FT% - .839
3 Point % - .34
Rebounds/Game - 5.3
Assists/Game - 4.6
Steals/Game - 1.5
Free Throws/Game - 7.7
Jordan Career
Points/Game - 30.1
FG% - .497 (almost 50% for a career and he eclipsed 50% for 4 straight years)
Minutes - 38.3
FT% - .835
3 Point % - .327
Rebounds/Game - 6.2
Assists/Game - 5.3
Steals/Game - 2.35
Free Throws/Game - 8.2
Even if I could look past the statistical matchup between the two players where Jordan is better in all but 3 point percentage, there are still many intangibles that Jordan has that Kobe does not.
Jordan won more championships with arguably a worse supporting case. Sure he had Pippen but for most of his career, he was winning without a center. Remember Luc Longley? Yea, he won 3 with that Timberwolves castoff. Kobe has been successful in his time in the NBA but his lone championship was with one of the most dominating center of all time in Shaq. There certainly is an argument that Kobe could still win many more championships and that could happen. However, once that happens then maybe we can start the comparisons.
Another intangible that favors Jordan is international appeal. At Jordan's peak, he was the most recognized athlete on the planet. Think of Tiger Woods but bigger. He was on every cereal box, in every commercial and everyone's favorite player.
We do not know what will become of Kobe. He is a great player with Hall of Fame numbers but the comparisons to Jordan need to stop. It is very apparent that the NBA is down in popularity however, to try to create a comparison for something that is a stretch does not help the game. It only makes people look silly.
May/081
Where’s Troy Hudson??
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Soccer sucks
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I know Jim Rome has nothing to do with MN sports, but let's all look back longingly on how Jim Rome got his start: Claiming that Jim Everett (QB of the Rams) was a girls tennis player (Chris Everett).
Apr/080
Coin Flip for Second Slot in Lottery?
Ok, with 4 games remaining the Timberwolves are currently slotted in the 3rd best position in the draft lottery, which would give them a 15.6% chance of landing the #1 overall pick. However, at 19-59 the Timberwolves are only one game in the win column ahead of the Seattle Supersonics (18-61). This means that to catch Seattle the Supersonics will have to win one more game than the Timberwolves the rest of the way. Complicating matters is that Seattle has three games left and the Timberwolves have four.
On first blush it would appear that we have no chance in this equation. Seattle's three remaining games are against solid Western Conference opponents (San Antonio, Dallas and Golden State). However, here is the scenario by which we could catch Seattle. The Timberwolves have 4 remaining games, the next 3 of them on the road. I predict that we will lose out. We play Orlando, Memphis and Detroit on the road in the next week or so, and will lose all three. The only close game will be at Memphis, but Rudy Gay will prove to be too much on the road. Then we come home for the final game against Milwaukee, which we will use to give backups extended minutes to try to determine who should remain on the roster for next year (Richard, Smith, Telfair, Snyder, etc.).
If we finish the year 19-63 we have a shot. The reason being that Seattle will win one of its remaining games, and here's why: First they play San Antonio. There's a chance that Duncan and company could be resting their players. They have no shot at catching New Orleans for the number one spot in the West and might not have a huge preference whether they play Dallas or Phoenix. Seattle's second game is against Dallas. This is more of a long shot, but it's possible that Dallas might not want to win out, because securing the 7th spot means that they will have to play SA or LA. If you're SA, why not lose a couple, grab the 8th spot and play New Orleans in the first round? Which brings us to the game that I think Seattle has the greatest chance to win: Golden State. Right now GS is in the 9th spot, on the outside looking in. By the last game of the season they will likely be officially eliminated, deflated, and looking to next year. On the other hand, Seattle has a lot of young talent who will be looking to make a statement for playing time to the coaches going into the offseason. If, and it's a big if, Seattle can pull out one of these three games for the reasons I have stated, and if the Timberwolves do the prudent thing and lose out, the Timberwolves will have a chance at a coin flip to see who gets the second slot and a 19.9% chance at grabbing Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose with the number one pick on May 20th. Here's hoping that the Supersonics will finish their run in Seattle on a strong note - maybe even win a couple more games..
Rose or Beasley, who do you want when it all unfolds?
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