T-Wolves Trending the Wrong Way

With the firing of McHale and a change of the guard at GM, Wolves fans finally had something to cheer about this past off-season.  A new coach more famous for his eye wear than his coaching prowess and a new young team featuring a lightning quick point guard.  To say there are growing pains would be an understatement, so far the 2009-2010 Wolves could be on their way to the worst season in NBA history.

The more disturbing fact to Wolves fans has been the steady decline of the franchise.  CBS sports reports Wolves ticket revenue is off 24% this year, the second worst year-to-year decline in the NBA.  The bigger story is that the Wolves are a below $500K club.  There are only 8 NBA teams who average below $500K in gate receipts per game.  There are 7 NBA teams (12 last year) who are averaging above $1M gate receipts per game this year.

These figures are important as it relates to free agents and building for the future.  The Wolves, before the season even begins are $10M - $20M behind in revenue right from the start.  If free agents are available to fill the Wolves needs, the Wolves simply can't afford them.  Teams like the Nuggets and Blazers, both Northwest Division foes, can add depth, scoring and defense to their rosters, simply because they have the revenue to do so.

So what's it all mean?  The only real way to re-build the Wolves is through the draft.  That's the good news, the Wolves are loaded with picks and retain assets they can easily trade to gain more picks.  The bad news, the Wolves are trending the wrong way.  Each year the team loses more and more games and offers little hope a turn around is in sight.

The wins, they are not improving...

To be fair the new regime should be given at least a year to show some sort of progress, lets watch, wait and hope next year we won't be saying the same thing.

"With the first pick of the 2010 NBA Draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select.....John Wall, Guard, Kentucky"

Rubio Pick Now Becoming More Clear

When the Timberwolves drafted 4 PG's in the 2009 NBA Draft they had basketball fans worldwide scratching their heads.  One day later the moves are starting to make a little more sense.

In today's economy it is no secret the most valuable players in NBA are one's with expiring or low contracts.  Twelve teams have received loans from the NBA front office.  Watching the NBA draft you'd think every team was trying to sell their pick for dead beat expiring players or cash (two did, LA and WAS).

It is this environment that MN found itself with 4 picks in the first round of what many experts were calling the worst draft class since Kenyon Martin's #1 overall 2000 draft.  Direct from wikipedia:

Sports Illustrated named this entire draft class (as opposed to individual players) the 6th biggest "draft bust" of the modern era - making it the only draft class among the site's top 20 list. Just before the 2009 draft, ESPN.com columnist David Schoenfield wrote a piece in which he rated all of the drafts since the institution of the draft lottery in 1985, and the only draft which he gave a grade of 'F" was the 2000 draft.  Side note: It's ironically funny because the draft was held in MN and every draft since then has been held in NY.

The Wolves then potentially have 4 picks in what many people think may be a top 5 worst draft class since 1985.  What to do?  Would it make sense to develop a 2 or 3 year plan?  Try fixing the one glaring PG need and horde picks and players in the future?  Would there be a way to take this years 4 and instead turn it into 3 picks in next years draft?  A draft with more talent?

It's no secret Glen Taylor is a business man first.  There is no reason to invest tens of millions into players that won't create wins in a tough Western Conference.  The only logical thing to do is build for 2 or 3 years out.

With that said Ricky Rubio wasn't or will never be in MN's 2 or 3 years out plan.  Here's what hoopshype.com looked like on Friday, June 26th.

When you consider Rubio doesn't want to play for MN and it would cost an est. $5-$6M to buy him out of his Euro contract MN was never going to be the place Rubio played.

The Wolves new GM is David Kahn.  Kahn spent the better part of a decade in the Indian Pacers front office.  His boss - the new New York Knicks GM Donnie Walsh. ie. the perfect trade partner.  Rubio has said he wants to play in NY.  NY is the only team that can really afford to throw millions at Rubio to buy him out and sign him to a long term deal.

Ricky Rubio's agent is Dan Fegan.  Fegan got Chinese YI Jianlian out of Milwaukee and into New Jersey a larger market where he preferred to be.  The Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni was just on ESPN radio praising how he loves coaching Euro players so much he traded for one of the NBA's biggest draft pick flops - Darko Milicic.

Rubio holds all the cards, he can play one or two more years in Spain if he likes.  But the Wolves made the smartest move when they took him anyway.  They now own the rights to a player many NBA teams will covet.  The Wolves own the bait and will get much more for him in return (ie. expiring contracts, draft picks, maybe even a sleeper).

If you do believe the Wolves are 2 or 3 years away then trading Rubio for a small forward, saving a bunch of money, maybe getting a draft pick or two makes the most sense.  Trading away Lawson to Denver for a future draft pick also makes sense.

The Wolves know they have to run the team like a business and there is no way they can compete in the West this year  with what they currently have with Rubio or not.  By making the right moves to clear salary, horde future picks and maybe pick up a solid speedy PG with a 40" inch vertical...the Wolves are erasing a dozen years of draft day blunders under former GM, God Bless his Soul, Kevin McHale.

Here's a snapshot of the salary situation before this years draft.  I like the idea of creating enough space now to go grab 1 or even 2 max deal elite players in free agency in 2011 and 2012.  That is if we can convince someone to handle the cold.  The Wolves are setting themselves up to go shopping in 2011 and 2012.

It's all part of the 2 or 3 year plan.  Too bad there isn't a Roy and/or Mayo around, instead of talking rebuilding we'd be talking about what one piece we could add to make a deep playoff run.