Jul/086
Why Mayo Is Right and Love Is Wrong
The professor gives too much credit to Kevin McHale and his ability to find talent in a draft. The fact that McHale likes Love should be reason enough to question the draft pick as McHale has never drafted an All-Star (except Garnett a HS project that happened to work out 13 yrs ago and some All-Stars he traded away on draft day).
The problem with drafting Love is that you don't get any upside. What you get is a predictable 6' 10" guy who won't change defenses. NBA history has shown little success for heavier set power forward types over the years. The power forward position has turned into small forwards converted for mismatches or centers converted for mismatches. You have Duncan, Garnett, Dirk, Bosh, Boozer, Jermaine O'Neal, Gasol and Jamison. Everyone of these players is more athletic than Love.
When Love was graded for the draft in 12 categories he scored well except in quickness and defense. I think this scouting report says it best:
Weaknesses: At 6-9, he is undersized and he also lacks great athleticism to offset this size deficiency ... Was not in the greatest shape this season, often being the last man up the court and getting winded very quickly ... Needs to work on fitness, could stand to lose some weight and put on more muscle ... Weight and speed could always be an issue, as even when "in shape" he lacks great speed in the floor or laterally ... Was able to get away with overpowering opponents in college, yet questions remain how his game translates against bigger, quicker and more athletic opponents at the next level ... At times this season he struggled getting his shot off against taller defenders, more specifically the Lopez twins of Stanford, who forced him into off-balance shots and uncharacteristic turnovers ... His one-on-one arsenal in the post is a bit predictable, as he almost always operates on the right block and prefers to turn to his left shoulder often finishing with a right hook ... He gets into trouble when trying to do too much off the dribble because quicker defenders are able to slide over and force him into turning the ball over ... Defensively he will have trouble matching up as he is undersized and because he has less than ideal lateral quickness ... His lack of speed will make it extremely difficult for him to play for a running style of team ...
Well the good news is the Timberwolves aren't a running team. The one thing that comes up again and again is quickness. That's one of the only things that matters in the NBA, at 6-10 he will have no height advantage like he had in college.
In college over his Pac10 season he shot more and more 3's. Boozer shot 1 in three years of college. If you take away Love's 3 pointers he average about 15 a game. I see Jamison and Dirk as shooters because of their quickness or height, I don't see Love doing much of that in the NBA.
I'm not saying he can't be a solid 10 points, 8 rb's a game kind of guy, but that's exactly what you are going to get. We now have 2 power forwards on our team with the exact same game. I just don't see how a Love will get you 10-20 more wins each year.
I'm not declaring Mayo will be the next great shooting guard or small forward, I'm just saying there is a better chance that someone in that position can make a bigger impact on a team vs. a Love type player. You look at the 2008 NBA All-Stars and you see Wade, Kidd, Allen, Billups, Hamilton, Joe Johnson, Pierce, Bryant, Roy, Chris Paul and you think Mayo could be one of of those players. In the NBA it's easier for him to produce those type results with his style game than it is for a Kevin Love to join Duncan and Garnett.
This is one case where I do think taking a very slight risk on a Mayo could potentially get you 10-20 more games a year. Taking a Love no matter how great he becomes won't accomplish that type difference. The NBA is not a place for 3 pt shooting power forward white guys.
If nothing else you seriously have to question the man running each draft and wonder why he really likes a guy, for 13 years that has been a horrible sign.
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July 22nd, 2008
Well, I couldn’t agree with you more that Mayo was the right call with the #3 pick. All night I was saying ‘If we don’t draft OJ I’m going to hang myself.’ Comparisons between the two are inevitable, but we didn’t trade 1 for 1, we traded Mayo for Love, Miller and almost 3 million dollars in cap space next year.
The only reason I like the trade is that we also traded for our new second-best player, Mike Miller. Miller hasn’t made an All-Star team, but he was rookie of the year, won a gold medal with the Olympic Team, averaged 16.4 points and 6.7 rebounds last year, and, at 28, is just entering his prime.
Also, it doesn’t matter that we have 2 power forwards because only about 3 teams in the league have a center. Outside of Howard (Eastern Conference) and O’Neil (wouldn’t beat the suns anyway), name a player who will outpower Jefferson on the block? Speaking of defense, Love made the all-defensive team in college. His height will likely mean he won’t make the all-defensive team in the NBA, but it’s not like he’s going to go from being an elite defender in college to a floormat in the NBA.
Also, I know that the summer league shouldn’t hold much weight when assessing players, but Love led the league in rebounding and was top 10 in scoring. Meanwhile, OJ Mayo flopped. This is the same summer league that Randy Foye was the MVP of. Why can he score, but Mayo can’t?
In conclusion, I think that the combination of Love and Miller will win more games for us over the next 5-7 years than OJ Mayo will. I’m a little afraid that Mayo is Ricky Davis reincarnated.
I think this is a great topic, though, and would love to see what other people think.
In closing, McHale also drafted Wally World, who was an all-star and was derailed by constant plantar fascia in his foot, which is hard to scout for out of college.
July 23rd, 2008
Ben The Professor –
I think its futile trying to argue that McHale has a good eye for talent. If you look at his recent moves — trading randy foye for brandon roy, drafting corey brewer, and now kevin love….
I don’t think he has any idea what he’s doing. Compare his moves with someone like Kevin Pritchard whose team was in salary cap hell 3 years ago. He’s done a masterful job of rebuilding that franchise.
McHale has been floundering around for the past decade.
July 23rd, 2008
I think you need to put down the sack and step away from the bong.
Kevin Love, as he did in college, will have the far better career overall in the pro’s as well. From the jump, Mayonnaise was over-hyped and that was proven without a doubt throughout last season.
Look. Mayonnaise is a decent player and will have a decent career, but will he be a Hall Of Fame-er? I highly doubt it. Will Love? I will be honest and say I don’t know, but unlike Mayonnaise, we won’t know the answer to that question until Kevin Love’s career comes to a close that will be many, many years down the road.
July 24th, 2008
Yongster, nothing in my post said that McHale has an elite eye for talent, I was just noting that McHale has picked a couple players in his tenure that have made All-Star teams. Hooter said that KG was the only one.. We drafted Marbury, who didn’t turn out as well as Ray Allen, but Marbury made multiple All-Star teams and who knows how his career would have gone if he’d stayed with KG; everyone sucks after they go to New York. So with high picks McHale has selected KG, Marbury and Szczerbiak, who all made All-Star teams.
We lost 5 first round picks because of the wink wink ink ink Joe Smith deal – losing those picks doesn’t mean that McHale drafted poorly those years, he just didn’t get a chance to make a choice. Then we made the playoffs 7 consecutive years, so the picks we made were in the mid-20’s where virtually no GM’s find All-Stars.
To your point about picking Brewer last year, who would you have picked at that time? Here are the 6 picks after us:
8 Charlotte Bobcats – Brandan Wright, Forward, North Carolina (to Golden State)
9 Chicago (from New York) – Joakim Noah, Forward/Center, Florida
10 Sacramento Kings – Spencer Hawes, Center, Washington
11 Atlanta Hawks (from Indiana) – Acie Law IV, Guard, Texas A&M
12 Philadelphia 76ers – Thaddeus Young, Forward, Georgia Tech
13 New Orleans Hornets – Julian Wright, Forward, Kansas
It’s easy to criticize a pick, but what was the alternative? I would definitely rather have Brewer than Spencer Hawes, who is the other person we were rumored to like in last year’s draft.
Kevin Pritchard has done a terrific job of rebuilding the TrailBlazers, but he has had top 10 picks for like 8 straight years, whereas the Timberwolves made the playoffs 7 straight years until recently.
Lastly, let’s hold judgment on the Roy/Foye one for a minute. After the first 3 years of the Marbury/Allen trade we looked like geniouses. Marbury came into the league on fire and Ray took a little longer dominate. Now you’re criticizing the same GM for choosing the player who wasn’t as NBA ready. Every GM in the draft in 2006 said that Roy was going to be rookie of the year, but, funny, he wasn’t selected until the 6th pick. Give it some time, Roy could easily plateau like Starbury did.
July 24th, 2008
Professor, when you consider Miller and the money it does change things. As someone forced to watch the Jazz I can vouch for the importance of a 3 pt threat. Once the Jazz traded for Ashton Kutcher (aka Kyle Korver) the team was never the same, the became an instant contender. If Miller can stretch the defense and hit 3’s it could mean big things for the Wolves.
I’m not saying Love will be a bust or Mayo will be a bust, they could both have great careers. All I’m saying is I think Mayo could have a bigger upside and he plays a position the wolves need. Love could be very solid and be a double-double machine, I’m just not sure that’s what we need to get into the elite group of teams in the West. I call it the Elton Brand effect, great player, great stats, doesn’t change teams. Miller and money will help.
Mayo could be a bust, but in this case because of what our team needs I would have taken the risk.
As for Mayo being summer league bust he’s avg. 19 and was named to the Olympic Select Team to play with guys like Rose and Durant. But I agree nothing can be taken from the summer league.
July 25th, 2008
I just want the Timberwolves to be able to compete this year. I think that a lineup of Foye, Miller, Gomes, Love and Jefferson has the potential to be a .500 team if they avoid injuries. I like Telfair, McCants and Brewer coming off the bench and running like crazy. Who knows how the trade will turn out, but I’m definitely not ready to rip it because I have always loved Mike Miller. Also, Minnesota is his home town team (grew up in SD) so he won’t leave after 3 years like Mayo might have done (ala Marbury). If we kept Mayo our lineup would have been Foye, Mayo, Gomes, Jefferson and Doleac. Or if Jefferson played center we would have to start Brewer and play small with Gomes at PF. I don’t like either of those lineups as much as the first one.
Love is also on the Olympic Select Team with Rose and Durant.
p.s. PA and Dubay are at training camp starting this morning; I’m not getting anything done at work..