NFL: High Picks = Top Performers??

This year the Minnesota Vikings will have the 17th overall selection in the NFL Draft.  Midway through last season it looked like we were a lock to land a top 5 pick.  Then Adrian Peterson realized that he was one of the 3 most explosive, game-changing players in the league and all hell broke loose.  The worst case scenario in the NFL is to narrowly miss the playoffs; in this scenario you not only miss out on the postseason, you also get a lousy draft pick. Unlike sports like hockey and baseball, it definitely pays to tank in the NFL; there's not even a lottery..  Although the Vikings did pay bigtime for their winning ways the last half of the season in the way of draft order, the way they will not pay is by having to invest in upwards of $30 million guaranteed dollars in what likely will amount to a bust player from college. 

With the 2008 NFL Draft closely at hand (relatively speaking), I for one am glad that our Vikings don't have the responsibility of picking in the top 10 and paying top 10 money to a player who has never stepped foot on a pro field.  This year the Dolphins have been 'rewarded' for having the most pathetic record in the league by being given the opportunity to invest $30 million guaranteed on basically a coin flip.  I will highlight my point by taking you back to the 2005 NFL Draft.  I'm choosing 2005 for a couple reasons.  The first is because the players in that draft have had 3 years to prove their worth.  The other reason is that it was a really bad first round for those selecting in the top 17 picks.  If the 2008 draft turns out anything like the 2005 draft, we should thank our lucky stars to have had our draft status drop like a football clanked off Troy Williamson's facemask.  Here is what the top 17 picks looked like in 2005:

Draft#:1

Alex D. Smith                     
Position:QB
Drafted From: Utah

CAN BARELY COMPLETE A PASS

Draft#:2

Ronnie Brown                             

Position:RB
Drafted From: Auburn

SHOWS SIGNS OF DOMINANCE BUT CAN'T STAY HEALTHY,  3 YEARS LATER THE DOLPHINS HAVEN'T IMPROVED

Draft#:3

Braylon Edwards                          
Position:WR
Drafted From: Michigan

COMPLETE STUD, TOP 10 RECEIVER IN THE LEAGUE IN MY ESTIMATION

Draft#:4

Cedric Benson                                 

Position:RB
Drafted From: Texas

FAT AND SLOW WITH NO VISION OR CUTBACK ABILITY

Draft#:5

Carnell Williams                               

Position:RB
Drafted From: Auburn

NOODLES FOR KNEE LIGAMENTS, FLASH IN THE PAN HIS ROOKIE YEAR

Draft#:6

Adam 'Pacman' Jones                      

Position:CB
Drafted From: West Virginia

MAKING IT RAIN IN JAIL (ABOUT TO BE TRADED TO DALLAS FOR A 7TH ROUND PICK)

Draft#:7

Troy Williamson                                       
Position:WR
Drafted From: South Carolina

TOO SAD TO EVEN MENTION (MAYBE NOT THE BEST DECISION TO TRADE MOSS FOR NAPOLEON HARRIS AND 7TH PICK) 

Draft#:8

Antrel Rolle                                       

Position:CB
Drafted From: Miami(Fla.)

NOT HALF THE CORNER HIS BROTHER IS.  WILL BE MOVED TO SAFETY THIS YEAR

Draft#:9

Carlos Rogers                                     

Position:CB
Drafted From: Auburn

WAS A SLIGHT DISAPPOINTMENT BEFORE TEARING HIS ACL, WE'LL SEE HOW THAT GOES...

Draft#:10

Mike Williams                                      
Position:WR
Drafted From: Southern California

RUNS MORE LIKE PAT WILLIAMS THAN ROY WILLIAMS (HE DID MAKE A ONE HANDED CATCH IN COLLEGE THOUGH...)

Draft#:11

Demarcus Ware                                   

Position:DE
Drafted From: Troy State

ONE DIMENTIONAL 3-4 SCHEME PASS RUSHER (COULDN'T COVER THE AFOREMENTIONED MIKE WILLIAMS)

Draft#:12

Shawne Merriman                               
Position:OLB
Drafted From: Maryland

PRO BOWL DEFENSIVE TEAM LEADER (ALTHOUGH HE HASN'T BEEN AS GOOD SINCE HIS STEROID SUSPENSION)

Draft#:13

Jammal Brown                                       
Position:OT
Drafted From: Oklahoma

ALL PRO ON THE FIELD AND AT DOMESTIC DISTURBANCES

Draft#:14

Thomas Davis                                                                  

Position:FS
Drafted From: Georgia

CONVERTED TO OUTSIDE LINEBACKER, SECOND ON TEAM IN TACKLES UNTIL SHOULDER INJURY IN GAME 15

Draft#:15

Derrick O. Johnson                                

Position:OLB
Drafted From: Texas

GOOD STARTING OUTSIDE LINEBACKER, VERY ATHLETIC, NOT GREAT VS. THE RUN

Draft#:16

Travis Johnson                                        

Position:DT
Drafted From: Florida State

ENDED TRENT GREEN'S CAREER LAST YEAR, KEITH OLBERMANN CALLED HIM 'THE WORST PERSON IN THE NFL'

Draft#:17

David Pollack                                            

Position:DE
Drafted From: Georgia

BROKE HIS NECK AND LIKELY WILL NEVER PLAY AGAIN

Making the beginning of this draft even worse is the fact that with the 18th pick we took Erasmus James, who has absolutely lived up to the hype that he is extremely injury prone.  The point of all this is that it's not necessarily the best to be at the top of the draft.  Call it sour grapes if you want, but the 49ers rue the day that they had to give Alex Smith $27 million guaranteed dollars, half of it up front!  Bottom line is I'd only want to have 5 of the players on this list on my team, period.  AND, I would only want Edwards, Merriman and Brown for how much they getting paid for their efforts.  So, from a value perspective I would want 17% of the top 18 picks.  Vegas cleans up and patrons have close to a 48% of leaving happy; if I were an NFL GM I would try to trade all my draft picks for players from whom  I was 100% sure what I was getting, even if it meant giving up some upside.  It might be a better strategy long-term, but nobody has had the seeds to try it.  It works in Madden...